Mexico, which this year established itself as the main exporter of products to the United States, faces a significant risk from tariff threats.
After overtaking China as the main supplier to the US market thanks to record trade figures, the position of the Mexican industry could be compromised if the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, carries out his proposal to impose tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on those from China.
Trump has conditioned the elimination of these tariffs on the three countries adopting effective measures against undocumented migration and drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl. “Mexico and Canada have the absolute power to solve this long-standing problem. It is time for them to do so or pay a very high price,” warned the Republican.
Although it is not yet clear whether the plan will be implemented or if there will be prior negotiations, the industries most exposed to these measures would be the automotive and electronics industries, pillars of trade between Mexico and the United States.
The 10 most important exports
According to data from Mexico’s Ministry of Economy (SE), automotive manufacturing and electronics will lead the exports with the highest commercial value to the United States in 2023.
These two industries represented an approximate amount of 200,000 million dollars, which is equivalent to 46% of the total value of Mexican exports to the US market.
Source: Mexican Ministry of Economy
Replacing the US market would be a monumental challenge, since 80% of products manufactured in Mexico are destined for that country.
In addition to the sectors that lead in commercial value, other sectors also contribute significantly to the volume of Mexican exports to the United States. For example:
- The furniture industry contributed 9.4 billion dollars to the trade balance.
- In the food sector, fruit and vegetable exports reached 12 billion dollars last year, while bakeries recorded sales of 2.36 billion dollars.
- The alcoholic beverage industry, such as beer and tequila, achieved sales of close to 3.5 billion dollars, according to figures from the Ministry of Economy.
«There are two alternatives»
In response to Trump’s statements, Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said Wednesday that the implementation of tariffs would directly impact American companies established in Mexico.
Ebrard said that this measure would be counterproductive for the United States, calling it “a shot in the foot,” and highlighted Ford, General Motors and Stellantis as some of the most affected North American companies.
“When President Trump says that he will impose 25% tariffs on Mexico because it exports too much to the United States, he is actually proposing to tax the main American companies that produce in Mexico and export to their own country,” explained the secretary.
During a press conference led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, together with representatives of various industries, Sheinbaum reiterated Mexico’s willingness to dialogue before considering reciprocal tariff measures.
“In this scenario we have two paths: we can fall into a spiral of divisions and tariffs that will never end, or we can work together to build a strong, competitive region ready to lead the future against other regions of the world,” he said.
On Wednesday afternoon, Claudia Sheinbaum announced that she had a telephone conversation with Donald Trump, accompanied by the Mexican foreign minister, Juan Ramón de la Fuente.
“I had an excellent conversation with President Donald Trump. We discussed Mexico’s strategy regarding the migration phenomenon, highlighting that the caravans are not reaching the northern border because they are being attended to in our territory,” she wrote in X.
Sheinbaum also indicated that they discussed strengthening collaboration in matters of security, respecting national sovereignty, and addressed the campaign in Mexico to prevent the consumption of fentanyl.
