This record high coincides with rising global temperatures, marking 2024 as the warmest year on record and surpassing, for the first time, the threshold of 1.5 ºC above pre-industrial levels.
Global consumption of coal, the most environmentally damaging fossil fuel, reached a record level in 2024, although it is expected to stabilize until 2027 due to the growth of renewable energies, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
This milestone occurs in a context of global warming, with 2024 projected to be the warmest year in history, exceeding for the first time an increase of 1.5 ºC compared to pre-industrial levels, according to the European observatory Copernicus.
“After reaching a record high in 2024, global coal demand is expected to remain stable in the following years,” says the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its annual report on the global coal market, which analyzes the period 2024-2027.
This year, demand will reach 8.77 billion tons, while international coal trade will register a record 1.55 billion tons, with prices 50% higher than the average recorded between 2017 and 2019.
2023 had already set records in coal consumption, reaching 8.53 billion tons, and in temperatures, consolidating itself as the warmest year to date.
“Our analyses indicate that global coal demand should stabilize until 2027, even with a significant increase in electricity consumption,” explained Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets at the IEA.
The rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is transforming the global electricity sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the world’s coal consumption,” Sadamori added.
The speed at which electricity demand grows will be a decisive factor in the medium-term performance of the market, says the International Energy Agency (IEA).
China plays a central role in this scenario, leading global coal consumption. According to the report, one third of the coal used worldwide is destined for power plants in this country.
Demand for coal is also increasing in emerging economies such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam, driven by their economic development and population growth, adds the IEA.
“Asia continues to be the main axis of international coal trade,” highlights the agency.
The continent is home to the largest importers of this fuel (China, India, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam), while Indonesia and Australia are consolidating themselves as the main exporting countries.
«Great uncertainties»
In contrast, coal demand in most developed economies has already peaked and is projected to continue declining through 2027, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The pace of this decline will be determined by the implementation of more ambitious policies, such as those promoted by the European Union, and by the availability of energy alternatives, such as low-cost natural gas in the United States.
The IEA is confident that the massive deployment of renewable energy, including in China, will limit the growth of coal use, even in the face of rising electricity demand.
Despite its high coal consumption, China has continued to diversify its energy mix in 2024, boosting the construction of nuclear plants and significantly expanding its photovoltaic and wind generation capacity, the report highlights.
“This should help limit the increase in coal consumption until 2027,” the agency estimates.
“Climate factors, particularly in China, which is the world’s largest coal consumer, will have a significant impact on short-term demand trends,” warned Keisuke Sadamori.
In addition to climate conditions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights other “major uncertainties” that could influence its analysis, such as increased consumption resulting from the electrification of transport, the increase in the use of air conditioning systems, and the emergence of new sectors, such as data centers.
“Weather conditions can generate fluctuations in coal consumption in the short term,” the agency notes.
These variables imply that, until 2027, coal demand in China could vary by up to 140 million tons, both up and down, which could influence global figures, either decreasing or increasing them.
