In the report “World Trade Outlook and Statistics,” WTO economists anticipate that the easing of inflationary pressures this year will allow for an increase in real incomes, especially in advanced economies, which will boost the consumption of manufactured goods.
The volume of merchandise trade grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2024, the World Trade Organization (WTO) reported on Tuesday.
The WTO measures this indicator as the average of global exports and imports.
Compared to the previous quarter (October-December 2023), the volume of world trade in goods grew by 1.0%.
The WTO projects a gradual recovery in world merchandise trade in 2024, following the contraction in 2023 caused by high energy prices and inflation. Merchandise trade is expected to increase by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, after a 1.2% decline in 2023. However, regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty could force a downward revision of these figures.
The WTO’s “World Trade Outlook and Statistics” report indicates that the reduction in inflationary pressures this year should allow for an increase in real incomes, especially in advanced economies, which will boost the consumption of manufactured goods. The recovery in product demand in 2024 is already evident, with new export order indices suggesting an improvement in trade at the beginning of the year.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted the resilience of supply chains and the strong multilateral trade framework as key factors for the recovery of world trade, emphasizing the importance of mitigating risks such as geopolitical conflicts to maintain economic growth and stability.
In 2023, high energy prices and inflation significantly affected the demand for manufactured goods, resulting in a 1.2% decrease in the volume of world merchandise trade. In value terms, merchandise exports fell by 5%, reaching $24.01 trillion.
Trade in services showed a more positive outlook, with a 9% increase in commercial services exports, reaching $7.54 trillion, which helped offset the decline in merchandise trade.
Imports decreased in most regions, especially in Europe, with exceptions in major fuel-exporting economies, whose imports remained steady thanks to high export revenues due to elevated energy prices.
Global trade remained well above its pre-pandemic level throughout 2023. In the fourth quarter, its level was practically identical to the same period in 2022 (+0.1%) and had only slightly increased compared to the same period in 2021 (+0.5%).
